Polls, Power and Positioning

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]It marked the 50th Newspoll, in a row, the Government has lost with the two-party preferred result, placing Labor ahead of the Coalition, 54 to 46.

The poll had the Government with a primary vote of 36 versus 39 for the ALP.  In 2016 the Turnbull Government won a one seat majority with 43% of the primary vote.  This is the fundamental challenge for the Government – their primary vote is too low to win.

The last fortnight saw the Government campaigning hard on the economy and border security, with little apparent impact on their electoral standing.  It also makes the Ipsos poll from a month ago look like an aberration rather than a change in sentiment towards the Government.

Energy policy continues to divide the government, bedevilling many prime ministers and governments alike, starting with Kevin Rudd back in 2010.

Regardless of the party in government, energy policy – synonymous for climate change policy – continues to dog the government-of-the-day.

For Rudd and Gillard, it was putting a price on Carbon, for the Liberals it is renewables versus coal and committing to action like the Paris agreement.

This week saw former Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce actively calling for a Government funded coal fired power station in central Queensland.

While it might be popular in central Queensland, for southern Liberals in leafy progressive seats, where climate change is seen as a real issue requiring a real response, calls for Government funded coal power stations is not exactly a vote winner.

Joyce has also caused more leadership heartache by saying he is ready and willing to serve as Nationals leader should the position become vacant.

This set off another round of leadership speculation within the Government and in particular the National Party, just two months before the federal election and less than two weeks before the NSW state election.

For a Government that has had 3 Prime Ministers in 3 years, the last thing it needs is a constant reminder of leadership instability, but Joyce’s support for a coal fired power station made sure it was front page news, drowning out any other Government message.

Bill Shorten announced this week that a Labor Government could seek to legislate a living wage by changing the law to compel the Fair Work Commission to set a higher minimum wage.

While there are competing economic views on whether a higher minimum wage would price workers out of the market, the issue plays right into Labor’s fair go agenda.

The Government attacked the plan with the Prime Minister stating, “I don’t think Australians want to see their co-workers sacked for them to do better. But that is Bill Shorten’s plan for Australia. To set one Australian against another. He is engaged in this war of envy on Australians.”

With many Australians experiencing low to stagnating wage growth, Labor is all too happy to be seen championing higher minimum wages in the face of Government opposition.

Until next week[/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1915″ img_size=”full”][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jody Fassina is the Managing Director of Insight Strategy and has served as a strategic adviser to MedTech and pharmaceutical stakeholders.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Election Watch – Slowing Economy, Big Stick and Turnbull Returns

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The Economy – Front and Centre

As the nation heads towards a May 18 election the campaign shadow boxing between Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten continues.

This week the issue of the economy was prominent, with the release of the December quarter national accounts showing the economy slowing to annual grow of 2.3% below the Reserve Banks forecast of 3%.

Both sides sought to use the national accounts to their own political advantage with the Treasurer stating, “the economy is in fundamentally good shape” and Labor’s Chris Bowen claiming the government had “lost the moral authority to campaign and talk about the economy”.

With the economy always a key election issue Bill Shorten declared that the election will be “a referendum on wages” whereas the Prime Minister made his pitch as the election being a contest between “enterprise and envy”.

There is no doubt economic fundamentals remain sound, but also many people are doing it tough and this is felt through stagnating to low wages growth.  Coupled with falling house prices there is danger for both sides in claiming to be the superior economic manager.

For Labor promising to abolish negative gearing against the backdrop of a falling housing prices may further exacerbate people’s feelings of economic anxiety and insecurity.  For the Government campaigning on a strong economy, when living costs are going up but their wages aren’t, leaves them vulnerable to claims of being out of touch.

Is the ‘Big Stick’ Back on the Table

In a development no doubt not welcomed by either the Prime Minister or Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, six Queensland Nationals MPs have demanded the shelved ‘big stick’ energy reforms be put to a vote in budget week.

The ‘big stick’ laws would allow the Government to force energy companies to be broken up in order to try and drive down energy costs.

Given budget week is also the last week of sittings before the election is held in May, it is highly unlikely the Prime Minister wants to be distracted in budget week with another divisive party room debate on energy policy.

The Prime Minister will want to use budget week to position the Government as the superior economic manager underpinned by a budget back in the black sooner than expected and not dominated by another debate over energy policy.

It is a measure of the political potency energy prices are as an electoral issue, that these six MPs are calling for a vote on these laws during budget week which would totally undermine the Government’s budget week strategy.

Malcolm Turnbull Returns

The ghost of Malcolm Turnbull returns to haunt the Morrison Government.

Following last week’s claim by Julie Bishop that she would have beaten Bill Shorten in a head to head contest, Malcom Turnbull has claimed in an interview out of London that he was dumped as leader because his own party was afraid, he would win!!

This must certainly be one of the more bizarre modern-day political claims, as most parties dump their leaders as their colleagues believe they can’t win the next election.

Putting aside the bizarreness of this claim, the concern for the Government is that with the election campaign just around the corner, will Malcolm Turnbull be to the Liberal Party what Mark Latham was to Julie Gillard in the 2010 campaign, a totally unwelcome distraction.

Many in the Government will be hoping that Turnbull sits out the campaign but to date he has shown no signs of doing so.

Until next week.[/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1915″ img_size=”full”][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jody Fassina is the Managing Director of Insight Strategy and has served as a strategic adviser to MedTech and pharmaceutical stakeholders.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][/vc_row]

A Political Heart-to-Heart

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]This week Minister for Health, Greg Hunt, announced the creation of a new Medicare item for heart health checks. A day later, Shadow Minister for Health, Catherine King, announced that a future Labor Government would invest $170 million in Medicare to take on cardiovascular disease.

The Hunt announcement:

From 1 April 2019, a new dedicated MBS item for health check will support General Practitioners and patients in assessing cardiovascular risk. The independent medical experts at the Medical Benefits Schedule Review Taskforce will also conduct a review with the potential for further development of this new Medicare item.

The King announcement:

The Opposition hopes its investment promise will prevent an estimated 76,500 heart attacks and strokes over five years. King stated the investment would ensure that all at-risk Aussies can undergo heart health checks as part of a comprehensive vascular screen that tests their blood pressure and looks at lifestyle factors such as smoking status.

So, what’s the key take away from this story? Well, as Minister Hunt said: “anyone who is concerned about their heart health should always ask their GP for a check-up”. Currently there are a range of Medicare items that cover services and tests where people may have heart disease or are at risk of heart disease including:

  • Specialist consultations with cardiologists;
  • Electrocardiograms tests (ECG);
  • Exercise ECG;
  • Stress (exercise) ECG;
  • Cardiac ECG;
  • Coronary angiography;
  • Computer tomography coronary arteries;
  • Chest X-ray;
  • Electrophysiology studies;
  • Cholesterol tests;
  • Lipid tests; and
  • Glucose test.

KEY INSIGHT: One Australian dies of cardiovascular disease every 12 minutes, with one Australian experiencing a heart attach or stroke very five minutes.

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Election Watch – Another Week Another Poll

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THE POLLS

What Newspoll showed was that there had been no change in the Government’s position, and they continued to trail the ALP by 53 to 47 two party preferred.

For the Government they would have been looking for confirmation that Ipsos was not a ‘once off’ and for the ALP they would have sighed a collective sigh of relief that Newspoll hadn’t tightened on the back of the border security debate.

This does not mean that border security goes away as an issue, it just means in the absence of a new line of attack the media in particular had moved on.

For Labor during the federal campaign proper, they will be hoping that there are literally not any boats on the horizon which would only serve to derail their campaign strategy.  Labor do not want boats as an issue during the federal campaign.

 

Budget 2019-20

The budget will be bought down on 2 April 2019, a month earlier than usual.  This budget is unique in that the Prime Minister will very soon after the budget call the Federal election, most likely for May 18.

This means any of the new budget measures are essentially election commitments and will only be implemented if the Morrison Government is re-elected.

Depending on the budget giveaways, Labor will also have to very quickly decide (depending on what the giveaways might be) whether to support some of them or not.  The most obvious will be potential personal income tax cuts.  Labor has its own plan for personal tax cuts so expect this is to be a potential policy battlefield.

The Morrison Government will be hoping to use the budget as a spring board into the election on its preferred policy ground of superior economic management.  This will be underpinned by the budget being back in surplus sooner than planned and contrasted against Labors $200 billion tax grab and spending commitments.

 

Royal Commission

A Royal Commission into the disability sector will be announced very soon and will run parallel with the Aged Care Royal Commission.

As the Prime Minister himself has said this inquiry will be just as big and revealing as the Banking Royal Commission.

With two of our communities most vulnerable groups aged citizens and those with disabilities subject to a Royal Commission it will really hold up a mirror to Australia as a nation and how we treat some of our most vulnerable citizens.

The major challenge going forward for our policy makers and Governments is following the Royal Commissions and subsequent reports and recommendations, the cost of fixing both will no doubt run into the billions of dollars.

The inevitable question will be who and how will the changes that will no doubt need to be made be paid for.  That is going to be a major challenge for the nation as a whole.[/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1915″ img_size=”full”][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jody Fassina is the Managing Director of Insight Strategy and has served as a strategic adviser to MedTech and pharmaceutical stakeholders.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Regional Australia Missing Out On Cancer Treatment

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Greater access to radiation therapy services could help improve that statistic, and one of the key barriers to accessing radiation therapy is distance from a treatment centre – if you happen to live in Geraldton, WA, for example, it’s over four hours travel to the nearest centre.

Invest in this:

The Radiation Therapy for Regional Australia campaign was launched in Newcastle this week, calling on the Federal Government and Opposition to invest in radiation therapy for regional Australia and address the clear under-use of radiation therapy across the country generally.

According to Associate Professor Peter O’Brien from the University of Newcastle, “Australia is lagging well behind Europe and North America in radiation therapy utilisation, and the Federal Government and Opposition must take action.”

How does Australia compare?

In Australia, radiation therapy is underused in the fight against cancer. In Europe and North America, 1 in 2 cancer patients receives it as part of their treatment, here it is only 1 in 3.

The campaign was launched by the Radiation Therapy Advisory Group, a group formed in 2017, comprising of expert individuals and organisations dedicated to raising the profile of radiation therapy and ensuring it is adequately funded by government.

The group has previously published a cost benefit analysis of radiation therapy as compared to other forms of treatment and found that radiation therapy results in significantly fewer out of pocket costs for patients than surgery.

Let’s give all Australians a better chance at beating cancer – join the campaign here: http://www.radiationtherapy.org.au/ & here: https://www.facebook.com/regionalradiationtherapy/[/vc_column_text][vc_video link=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KXNaEXvZoE” title=”The problem of distance in accessing radiation therapy”][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Unforeseen Consequences For Older Australians

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Insurers have until April 2020 to implement the new tiers, however, the new system will start rolling out from April this year.

Under the reforms, cataracts, joint replacements, dialysis for chronic kidney failure, and insulin pumps will all fall under the ‘Gold’ category, which, according to Senate Estimates this week, will comprise around 45 per cent of all policies.

It is still unclear what this will mean for private health fund members overall, but for older Australians who are more sensitive to increases in the price of their policies, the categorisation of joint-replacements and cataracts as Gold, may limit their access to these procedures, which will have the potential impact of pushing them onto public waiting lists.

Based on 2017 Australian Orthopaedic National Joint Replacement Registry data, osteoarthritis is the principal diagnosis for all five types of partial knee replacements (at 98.9 per cent) and primary total knee replacement (at 97.6 per cent of cases). The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare reports that in 2014-15, 2.1 million Australians had osteoarthritis, with the prevalence of the condition rising sharply after the age of 45, and being greatest in patients aged 80 and over. There was a rise of 38 per cent in total knee replacements from 2005-06 to 2015-16.

Older patients most likely to need insurance for new knees are those most likely to be unable to afford to upgrade to gold coverage and may be left with no alternative to join the waiting list for treatment in the public system.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

KING COMMITS TO REVIEW OF RECORD

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  • Do we have trust issues? Very likely. The murmurs of public apprehension about MyHealth had floated around the blogosphere in the lead up to the opt-out date, bolstered by the resignation of MyHealth Record’s privacy chief Nicole Hunt in November of last year.

It’s been confirmed that these murmurs resulted in a mass refusal to participate, with more than 2.5 million Australians opting out of the system. This number is a significant increase from the 1.1 million opt-outers in October 2018.

With the figures coming from the Australian Digital Health Agency during Senate Estimates on Wednesday, its clear that in 2.5 million people’s minds the security and privacy concerns trumped the benefits of a national digital health record – a concept with bipartisan support.

  • Who’s talking about it? Shadow Health Minister Catherine King MP has since reiterated that a future Shorten Labor Government would commission an independent Privacy Commissioner to review the system. Looking at informed consent, consumer engagement, access settings and protections for vulnerable people – is it surprising that 10% of the population have opted-out of the system in its current state.

It was marketed on the idea that the record would save your life in an emergency, but maybe a centralised digital record needs to be proven to be a fortified system before it’s a life-saving one.

  • What happens if the Government changes in May? It’s unlikely that the concept will get scrapped, as Ms King herself has supported the idea. Instead, we will likely see an attempt to regain trust and re-inform the public of what MyHealth can stand for.

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Federal Parliament – Week in Review

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The week was undeniably dominated by the Kerryn Phelps Bill being passed with the support of Labor and the crossbench that will allow for the medical transfer of asylum seekers from Manus Island and Nauru to Australia.

In a 75-74 vote the Government has become the first Government in over 80 years to lose a vote on legislation on the floor of the Parliament. But in losing the vote, it has also allowed the Government to gain the political upper hand and be talking about its preferred issue of border security.

Many pundits have claimed, this week saw the Government, in effect get some of its mojo back.

Border security is a natural strength for the Government and Prime Minister Morrison and his Ministers have been relentless all week in reminding the community that only they can be trusted on border security against a weak Bill Shorten and Labor Party.

Make no mistake, there will be a bruising and brutal campaign on the issue of border security that will run from now until election day. It is a political Achilles heel for Labor, and they will be hoping it won’t become the defining issue of the federal election.

In other issues, on Thursday the Prime Minister delivered the 11th annual Closing the Gap statement to Parliament, which provides an update to the nation on progress that has been made in alleviating indigenous disadvantage.

In a sobering statement the Prime Minister reported that only two of seven targets showed positive progress – year 12 attainment and early childhood progress. The challenge of alleviating indigenous disadvantage is one that continues and also one that garners bipartisan support.

The Prime Minister made a signature announcement, that being teachers who commit to go and teach in a remote aboriginal community for 4 years will have the entirety of their HECS wiped. A good initiative which will helpfully see Aboriginal kids have access to some of our best and brightest teachers.

On Wednesday the Shadow Health Minister Catherine King gave a major speech to the National Press Club, outlining some key Labor health policy objectives.

At its core was a commitment to establish in Government a permanent Australian Health Reform Commission which will as the Shadow Minister stated will be, “comparable to the Productivity Commission”.

Its mandate will be to develop and oversee a long-term health reform agenda. By the Shadow Ministers own admission, it wont win votes, but is being done “….because it’s the right thing to do, in the long-term interests of the country.”

The work of the Commissions will be driven by COAG in recognition that a Federal Health Minister alone cannot solve all the nation’s health policy challenges and to also ensure that all States have equal buy in, in both identifying the problems, coming up with solutions and hopefully the means to fund them as well.

Lastly the Government dropped its legislation to introduce their ‘big stick’ energy reforms, which would have given the them the power to regulate power companies and will take this proposal to the election.

Concerned that they may lose another vote on the floor of the Parliament, the Government thought it was better to withdraw and live to fight another day.

That’s the week in review.

P.S.  Next week, only the House of Representatives is sitting as the Senate will be holding Senate Estimate committee hearings.[/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1915″ img_size=”full”][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jody Fassina is the Managing Director of Insight Strategy and has been an strategic adviser to MedTech and pharmaceutical stakeholders.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

INSURERS MUST PASS ON SAVINGS TO CONSUMERS

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]With increasing margins and premiums up 3% in the December quarter, private health insurers continue to rake in profits as costs continue to rise for consumers, who are paying consistently more for less.

As PulseLine’s regular readers will know, the medical technology industry struck a deal with the Government in 2017 to cut prices on the Prostheses List by $1.1 billion over four years, which meant that private health insurance premiums rose by their lowest level in 18 years in 2018.

The December quarter APRA data demonstrated again that those reforms are bringing costs down for insurers. Since the September 2018 there have been cost reductions across significant prostheses categories, including:

  • Cardiac costs down 1.7%
  • Hip costs down 1.4%
  • Knee costs down 1.1%

And compared with the December quarter a year ago in 2017, the savings are even more evident, with:

  • Total benefits paid for prostheses down 4%
  • Average benefit paid for all prostheses down 12%

This is a direct result of the $1.1 billion dollars in cuts that the medtech industry delivered through its Agreement with the Government, and a crucial demonstration of the significant contribution that medical technology is making towards affordable health care.

It is now up to private health insurers to stop pointing the finger and start looking at how they can ensure those reductions flow through to consumers, to provide continuing affordability and access to better health outcomes for all Australians.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]